Israel Seminars - Ronny Simon - Meanwhile on the ground

...Meanwhile, on the ground

Only time will tell how effective was Netanyahu's message to the congress to stop a bad deal with Iran. In an odd way, the message had served Iran as well. While the world's attention is now given to Iran's nuclear program, what happens in the Middle East on a daily basis is almost ignored.

The challenge Iran is presenting to the region's safety and stability is not a future problem but an acute present one.
By now Iran is controlling fully four Arab capitals in the region; Damascus, Beirut, Baghdad and Sana'a. (The capital of Yemen). Dominating those capitals and dictating Iran's policy and strategic plans is changing the reality in the Middle East day by day.
By now, there is an Iranian continuant geographic presence from Iran proper to the Mediterranean Sea. The governments of Iraq, Syria and Lebanon are no longer functioning governments. The chaos in these countries that had accrued due to busy Iranian efforts, is serving Iran well. Last year Iran officially announced it was founding "Hezbollah Syria" in the Golan Heights to "free" the Golan from Israel. At the same time there are voices that call to recruit the Palestinians that live in harsh conditions oppressed and indeed massacred by the regime forces in Syria. The Palestinians in Syria and Lebanon that were and still are the regime's bitter opponents are another potential group of people that Iran wants to arm against Israel. Only several months ago Iran had stated that it does not have any military presence in Syria or in Lebanon. That was of course sheer lie as Iranian officials and members of the "Revolutionary Guard" were killed in combat in these countries.
By now, Iran had stated officially that it is involved with boots on the ground almost everywhere in the region. In other words, Iranian troops are stationed already along Israel's borders and after Yemen become Iranian territory, on Saudi Arabia's borders as well.

But it gets even worse. Yemen is controlling the strategic straights that lead from the Indian Ocean to Israel Egypt and the Suez Canal. Much of Israel's maritime trade is with Africa and the Far East. With Iran in control of Yemen, Israeli ships will be in danger sailing through the straights of "Bab El Mandeb", the sea way that connects Israel with Africa and the Far East. All the maritime trade that crosses the Suez Canal will also be in danger what makes it a world problem.

In other words, with the expansion of Iranian dominance in the region, it changes totally the Middle Eastern political and strategic structure. The points of tension increase in number and in geographic dimensions. A full scale regional war can break out with devastating results long before the Iranian nuclear plan will be effective.

All of the above happens when only little attention is given to it by world leaders. Mapping the danger Iran presents to the region's stability, conventional full scale conflict may erupt long before the nuclear threat will materialize.

The articles in this section are reflecting the Israeli point of view regarding local and regional events.
I'm not a state official and I have no access to inside information. The articles and the opinions I'm expressing are mine alone and are based on observing and knowing the region and country for many years.